Donald Trump is Crushing Joe Biden in Key Swing States. Why?

Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one.

Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

A stunning New York Times / Siena poll shows Donald Trump absolutely smoking Joe Biden in several key swing states and, perhaps most shocking of all, doing very well with the voters who theoretically make up a crucial chunk of the Democratic base: Young voters and voters of color. Many, many election-watchers and pundits and casual tweeters are happy to argue that these results reflect their personal theory of the race, or voter dissatisfaction with Biden’s actions on whatever issue they care about most (you hear this a lot with regard to Israel / Gaza, an issue many pundits insist is driving voters away from Biden, even though most voters, including young ones, rank the war toward the very bottom of their concerns). There is much confusion: How could all of these voters be upset about the economy, when it’s so much better than it was when Biden took office? And in opposition, there is much defense of these voters’ rationality: Life is difficult for many Americans, and finances are tight and people are right to say that the economy sucks and so does life generally (how this rationalizes voting for Trump goes largely unexplained).

But I actually think the explanation is simpler: If you are reading this newsletter or perusing a New York Times poll, you are significantly more engaged and probably more sophisticated than the average American voter. Many, many American voters have no idea what is going on outside of their own lives; they don’t have a strong grasp of each politician’s specific policies beyond the very top lines, and have extremely incoherent policy preferences themselves, to the extent they’ve even thought about how political policies might affect their lives. Many, many voters vote on vibes: A general sense of like or dislike, affection or disaffection, a desire for things to stay the same or to really shake things up and see what happens (or at least be entertained).

If you are a person who writes or speaks professionally about politics, you are not supposed to say this, because it sounds insulting to suggest that a lot of voters are just not engaged and don’t actually know what they’re doing or talking about when it comes to politics.