Israel Could Win This War, and It Will Still Lose

The horrors in Rafah will only breed more hatred, vengeance, and death. And for what?

Horrifying photos and videos are coming out of Rafah this week after Israeli strikes led to the deaths of dozens of people and the injuries of hundreds more in what was a tent encampment for displaced Gazans. It’s hard to overstate the obscenity of what happened here: These are desperate civilians who had already fled for their lives, seeking shelter in dingy conditions, who had been told that they would be safe — only to find themselves trapped in what must have felt like literal hellfire.

The Israeli government first said that the strike was a precise one. After global outrage mounted, Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu said that it was all “a tragic accident” — but not one that would stop his military from invading an area where a million-odd Palestinians have fled to avoid the war that has engulfed so much of the tiny Gaza Strip. This all comes after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel not to invade Rafah, and after an International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu, a second Israeli leader, and three leaders of Hamas. Israel seems to be claiming that the civilian deaths largely came from a fire that ignited after a strike hit something flammable near the camp. They also say that they did not strike within the humanitarian zone, a claim countered by the International Rescue Committee, and that they had warned civilians to leave Rafah (at this point, there are few safe places left for civilians to go). And Israel says that the strikes did indeed take out two Hamas leaders who had been in Rafah among civilians.

Even if you take the Israeli government’s claims at face value here — and for the record, I don’t — it still doesn’t answer the question: How does this end? (Not to mention: What did you think would happen?)