What JD Vance Means for America

Trump wants this race to be about the strong triumphing over the weak in a nation hobbled by fear.

Donald Trump, fresh off surviving an assassination attempt, has picked not just a running mate but an heir apparent: Ohio senator JD Vance, a harsh, anti-feminist populist who metamorphasized from Never Trump Republican into MAGA millennial. Vice presidential picks are almost universally less about picking the best person for the job and more about trying to appeal to a particular voting bloc or send a particular message about what this administration will be. Trump’s choice of Vance does both.

The voters to whom Vance appeals: Angry white guys. The message he sends: That this will be a harsh, unforgiving, anti-feminist administration, “populist” in the service of disaffected men, less so for the female population of the United States. And he makes the Trump campaign’s strategy clear: Fear, fear, fear.

JD Vance supports criminalizing abortion, and refused to vote in favor of protecting IVF. He’s among the most visible men of the new religious right: Gender-traditionalist and trying to be hyper-masculine; cruel, judgmental, blatantly sexist, and avowedly Christian. He mocks his opponents for being “cat ladies” and is obsessed with women not having enough babies. Since turning Trumpy, he’s gone all-in on MAGA, supporting harsh immigration laws, global isolationism, and nonsensical and potentially disastrous economic policies. He’s not exactly a mini Trump, but he is something of a slightly more grown-up Matt Gaetz.

Which makes you wonder: What does Vance offer that Trump doesn’t? Who is Vance bringing in who isn’t already enthralled with Trump himself?

One answer: The selection of Vance confirms the Trump team’s understanding that this election is perhaps less about policy and more about vitality in the face of fear.

Trump wants this contest to be about strength vs. weakness, and the attempt on his life — and his response to it — was no doubt hugely terrifying, but also one of the greatest political gifts of his career. Joe Biden’s problem is not just that he’s old; it’s that he comes across as an increasingly feeble elderly man. Yes, Trump is only a few years younger than Biden. Yes, Trump also speaks in word salads and screws up basic facts, and more importantly lies incessantly, appears to live in a wholly alternate reality, and I would bet the farm has a serious personality disorder. Trump is worse because evil and dangerous is worse than feeble and old. He is worse because the things he promises to do would have vastly disastrous outcomes for the country; this isn’t just a vibe, but a matter of fact based on things he has actually said and promised. But even though feelings are not facts, it’s also true that facts are not feelings — and lots of voters vote on feelings.

The GOP has long been the party of fear, and this is a wise strategy: Conservatives are a pretty fearful bunch, which is why they’re also the party of God and guns and tough-on-crime and tall border walls. That old William Buckley adage that a conservative is someone who stands athwart history yelling Stop? That’s fear: fear of change, fear of losing power, fear of what might be different. Trump speaks to these fears, first magnifying them and then promising to assuage them. The fact that he was nearly killed and immediately stood up and raised a fist was, for his followers, proof positive of his near-invincible strength.

This is what Joe Biden does not have.